APAC banking systems are set to deliver robust financial results in 2025, bolstered by positive growth and stable unemployment, even as interest rates have mostly peaked.

Fitch’s neutral sector outlook for global oil & gas is based on a balanced market, reflecting OPEC+’s large spare capacity and moderating demand growth, although significant geopolitical developments could increase volatility in the sector.

An accessible bond market and energised levels of M&A activity in 2024, combined with continued solid fundamentals for many real estate asset classes, confirm Fitch’s EMEA real estate outlook as ‘neutral’.

Jinny Yan, Chief China Economist at ICBC Standard Bank, discusses her outlook for China’s economy in 2025 and the government’s policy measures and priorities, particularly its focus on de-risking, diversifying and enhancing domestic capacity.

Global housing market trends are generally positive in 2025, with almost all countries in Fitch’s Global Housing and Mortgage Outlook (GHMO) seeing rising home prices and low mortgage arrears.

Fitch’s neutral outlook for APAC corporates reflects the strength of their balance sheets and steady growth prospects in various countries across the region, largely offsetting global volatility and economic and geopolitical uncertainties.

The outlook revision to ‘neutral’ for 2025 reflects a more supportive market environment for global investment managers (IMs) than in 2024, when the outlook was ‘deteriorating’, due to lower interest rates and a resilient US economy.

中国近年的人口流动趋势若得以持续，将会对地方政府的收入和前景带来深远影响。过去五年间，人口从小型城市到中大型城市、从经济欠发达地区到经济发达地区的净迁移以及总人口数量的下降，导致包括地级市在内的许多小型城市人口数量出现下滑。与此同时，大部分直辖市、省会、副省级城市和计划单列市的人口总量仍在持续上升。流动人口也越来越倾向短距离迁移，而非长途迁徙，这一趋势令区域性经济中心受益。

Global sovereign conditions are neutral for 2025, with an only mild slowdown in world economic growth and further cuts to policy rates balanced against persistent pressures on public finances and elevated geopolitical risks.

Overall, Fitch expects a more stable global structured finance (SF) asset performance in 2025, with approximately three quarters of all outlooks ‘neutral’. North America accounts for the majority of the sectors with ‘deteriorating’ outlooks.