中美双方于5月12日发布的《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》似乎意味着两国贸易战显著降级。但是，在没有达成持久协议的情况下，围绕最终关税税率的不确定性仍将是惠誉在预测宏观经济时的重要考虑因素。

The joint US-China statement on 12 May appears to be a significant de-escalation of the trade war, but in the absence of a lasting deal, tariff-related uncertainty will remain a key factor in our macroeconomic forecasts.

尽管中美贸易对峙局势升级对消费者信心构成压力，但政府推出的强力促消费措施仍有望支撑中国汽车零售市场在2025年实现低个位数百分比增长。

Generous consumer incentives are likely to support low-single-digit growth in China’s retail auto market in 2025, despite increasing pressure on consumer sentiment from heightened US-China trade tensions.

Mass deportations could have a materially negative impact on the domestic labor supply, which affects the operating and financial performance of some corporate, public finance and global infrastructure issuers.

From global macroeconomic trends to sovereign credit developments to regulatory and political changes, Fitch’s Fixed Interests podcast delivers the analyst insights and updates you need to stay ahead in a rapidly evolving market.

Fitch believes that the Reserve Bank of India’s draft regulations for gold-backed loans offer greater clarity to market participants.

Shelly Shetty, Managing Director, Americas Sovereigns and Todd Martinez, Senior Director, Sovereigns, discuss Mexico’s recent rating affirmation, and how the sovereign is navigating global trade tensions and domestic fiscal challenges.

Alternative investment managers (alt IMs) are increasingly penetrating the private wealth channel, which will drive long-term growth in assets under management (AUM) but also introduce risks.

North American airlines are facing a period of softer demand concentrated in U.S. domestic leisure travel as consumers pull back on discretionary spending, with Fitch now expecting revenue passenger miles to be flat to modestly down in 2025.